Gold, euro & oil
The gold, the euro and the petroleum are all three in points pivots. The passage of these resistances would augur of very sharp increases in the next months. I have already approached these various points on the other analysis, but it is always interesting to put these subjects in parallels.
I. The euro / dollar.
A
previous analysis looked as objective 1.5; today the following
objectives can be envisaged if the resistances are crossed. If the
euro crosses these three resistances in the zone included between 1.30-1.38,
the objectives from 1.78 to 1.94 are possible.
II. The gold.
As I have already explained it
in the previous analysis, the passage of the resistance in the zone
$420-430 gives then a 600$ Ounce of gold objective, even if there is
an intermediate resistance in the zone of 500$.
III. The petroleum.
The situation of the oil barile is
different because it has already broken its important resistance in $40.
Having given an objective to $48 (in 2003)
and $60 (in 2004), at first
I believe that the $71 objective is completely possible.
Three elements follow the same dynamics
connected in the short run to the fate of the US dollar. But be careful,
it is not the only element of the equation. The euro rises because of
the poor health of the dollar and not for its intrinsic qualities. The
euro rises for lack of competitor to replace the declining dollar.
As regards the gold and the oil, it is different because the decline of the
dollar is only a reason furthermore so that the prices rise. The gold and
the oil are in a very bullish structural situation and it is not the punctual
crises which are the mainspring of their increases. In every new record of
the oil price or the gold, we explain it by cyclical reasons (war, speculation,
central bank…) while the causes are structural (peak of production,
lower investigation, general increase of the consumption).
The euro begins a temporary increase, but the gold and the oil are only at
the very beginning of a very long bullish journey.
Dr Thomas Chaize
