The Price of Oil, Coal, Gas, Uranium
Sometimes we have the opportunity to follow the price of oil in the press, on radio or television. But for the price of gas, uranium and coal is rarer. Also, when you have the price of oil is often without graphics or with a short-term chart. Therefore, here we will make a brief assessment of energy prices since 1980 to where we are now.
Australian Coal: the price of a ton of thermal coal (12 000 BTU / pound) Australian.
WTI Crude Oil: This is the price of a barrel of oil WTI (West Texas Intermediate).
Henry Hub Natural Gas: This is the price of one million BTU (British Thermal Unit) of gas in Louisiana.
Uranium Price: That's the price of a pound of uranium.
You will notice that the price of oil, coal, gas and uranium rises simultaneously with shifts and a different volatility. To put us on this graph, we will use the Weinstein phases. Weinstein phases allow us to have a common language and summarize it in a few words.
In summary, they include four phases:
Phase 1 (foundation)
Phase 2 (Phase advanced above the moving average 200 days)
Phase 3 (ceiling area)
Phase 4 (falling below the moving average 200 days).
It is possible to make two different graphs with Weinstein Phases (I have not managed to change), the first, simpler and clearer; the second a little more complicated. The two graphs share of Phase 1, starting (1980-1998) and Phase 4, current from 2011-2014.
This is greatly simplified, but it allows us to place in the cycle.
Once Phase 4 is completed, normally we should enter a Phase 1, foundation awhile before knowing a new Phase 2.
The question is whether we will have a phase 1, short or long? I do not have the answer, but what is certain is that the next phase 2 deserves attention.
Basically, we just need to follow the price of oil, which is sort of the leader of this group. When oil prices sustained rise above its moving average 200 days or 30 weeks we will have a very interesting bullish indicator (currently the MM200 is around $ 45).
The world had 4.4 billion inhabitants in 1980, 6 billion in 2000 and 7.4 billion today ... Part, ever more important, this population adopted the Western lifestyle. Ie, for each family, a car (then two), a house (still more), light evening, heating in winter, air conditioning in summer, electricity for computers, telephones, refrigerators, television, washing machine, dryer ...
This requires still more oil for transport, gas, coal and uranium for electricity. We want that comfort, but forget that upstream it requires natural resources that exist in limited quantities!
Then sooner or later the offer will be lower than demand and we have a new Phase 2.
Dr Thomas Chaize