Oil knows the rhythms and rising seasonal decline it is interesting to follow. Whether in a bullish or bearish trend as oil keeps a "tempo".
For 15 years, we had 12 down during the bad season from December to April oil, specifically at the beginning of the year. Some of these recesses have only been followed by a small seasonal increase in a few months and other have been "cycle hollow" as in 2001, 2006 and 2008 (dark blue circles).
For example last year we had a low in January followed by a small seasonal rise to the driving season, at the end of June.
On fifteen years (1986-2001), nine hollow +/- took place earlier this year, three major low points.
Clearly, oil has a seasonality that makes the lows usually occur between late December and early March. If you want to buy stocks, futures or fill your fuel tank for your tractor or your boiler is usually the correct period.
Please note I am not psychic, I do not say that the cycle trough will be held from 6 to 9 Jan 2016! What I mean is statistically a good time of year to buy in the oil sector is usually in early January.
Dr Thomas Chaize