I am not an expert in Elliott Wave, the goal is not to provide an accurate count and final price of oil with this method. The idea is to define the magnitude of the next major wave of oil prices in light of developments over the past ten years. This method allows us, in particular, to have benchmarks and a common vocabulary.
I. The Elliott Wave Theory.
Ralph Nelson Elliott was an accountant born in Kansas in 1871 and died in New York in 1948. He developed his theory of market developments in wave in the late thirties. He writes The Wave Principle in 1938. For him the psychology of investors is changing by large regular phases of mood. These phases of optimism and pessimism are well enough to allow a fair count.
Here's countdown, which is composed of several waves, very briefly summarized:
Wave 1 is the first wave of increase, hardly noticeable, which is the precursor.
The wave is a wave 2 correction of wave 1.
Wave 3 is the most powerful wave upward with large volumes, that of followers.
Wave 4 is the wave correction of the wave 3.
Wave 5 is the latest wave upward, while small investors.
Wave A is the first wave of decline
Wave B is a temporary resumption of the increase.
Wave C is the second and final wave of declines.
II. Elliott Waves and the price of oil.
I offer this statement for the increase from 1998 to 2008 and the fall of 2008 crisis:
I wave from December 1998 to September 2000.
Wave II from September 2000 to November 2001
Wave III from November 2001 to August 2006.
Wave IV from August 2006 to January 2007
Wave V in January 2007 to July 2008
Wave A of July to August 2008
B wave of August 2008 to September 2008
Wave C from September 2008 to December 2008
III. "Big picture".
Cycle (several years) from 1998 to December 2008 can be included in a super cycle (several decades). The increase in five waves: I, II, III, IV and V from 1998 to 2008 is the wave (I). The correction A, B, C from July to December 2008 is the wave (II).
In this super cycle, the current rise is a wave I, and his future will be a wave II correction. These Waves I and II are the beginning of a wave (III) of the super cycle that began in December 1998.
- The important point is the start of wave III (III) (manic phase), the most bullish. With the countdown to the start of this wave may take place from 3 to 12 months after the end of wave I (current wave) at the end of the next wave II.
- The time scale for the waves (III) and (IV) is a decade.
- The correction of the wave (IV) should not fall below the crest of the wave (I) to $ 147 a barrel oil, otherwise the count is wrong.
Translation for those residing refractory to Elliott Wave: The Rise of July 2008 is only the first wave of increase of an upward trend for several decades. The next wave, which will not last, will exceed the previous peak in July 2008 and the correction will not fall below the summit.
Warning: This is only put into perspective the price of oil with Elliott Waves. If one of the points raised is wrong, then the whole statement to be challenged. Despite the accuracy of the statement must see this issue as the outline of a theoretical rather than a detailed road book.
Dr Thomas Chaize