Energy and metals for 2007
pdf 
In this beginning of year, I wanted to make a sort of small balance on the energy, the metals and their perceptions in the journalistic and economic world, difficult objective …
I. Yesterday :
In 2001, 2002, 2003,
to invest in the gold of oil was likened in: incompetence and stupidity.
To speak about it, condemned the unfortunate for the disdain and for the mockeries,
then, very often his intellectual faculties were questioned to have had the
same ideas. Those who had the thoughtlessness to be too much interested early
in the gold, the silver, the coal, or still in the petroleum will not contradict
me on the icy reception which the investments had at this moment there.
II. Today :
1) The
ounce of gold is crossed from $250 to $720, the
ounce of silver, it, from 4 dollars to 14 dollars, the
barrel of petroleum from $15 to $70, the
pound of uranium from $15 to $70, finally the price of the ton of coal
doubled. We could artlessly believe that the septic of yesterday cannot deny
any more the evidence …
2) Error feeble-minded person
it is one not increase, you badly understood it is a Bubble.
This means that this bubble is going to end, to deflate, to disappear, actually
the ounce of gold is going to return wisely below its courses of production,
the petroleum to spring from underground by a blow of magic wand and that,
some supernatural discoveries of a learned madman are going to resolve the
energy problems of the world (it is the point of the economists, the scientists
= magicians).
III. Tomorrow :
- In 2007, we are probably going to continue
to say to you one everywhere that:
Petroleum is going to return wisely to a lower cost thanks to a supernatural
increase of the world production.
The big world companies of petroleum are going to discover more petroleum
and that the USA, China and India will need no more energy.
Goldmines are not going to close if the price of the ounce of gold falls
The zinc producers are going to find banks to lend them hundred millions dollars
to investigate and build mining to produce at a loss.
- We shall explain to you although the increase of the zinc, the coal, the
uranium, the petroleum, the lead, the tin, the copper, the nickel, the platinum,
of the palladium, the natural gas, the aluminium, the molybdène, the
titanium, the iron, the cobalt, the silver are only the work of some somber
hedge fund Machiavellian or of one news geopolitical crisis.
- Many rarer will be those who will say to
you that raw materials are in a bullish tendency for very long term, to be
clearer:
The
increase of the petroleum makes interesting all other forms of production
from fossil fuels: uranium,
gas, most
old-fashioned and most polluting as the coal. So, certain renewable energies
will become profitable.
All around the world, in every ton of extracted ores, the contents in metal
are more and more weak. As a consequence, it is thus necessary to treat more
ores to produce the same quantity of metal.
Deposits are situated more and more far (desert regions, need to build roads,
long routes) and more and more deep (typical example: golden deposits in South
Africa). Therefore, the extraction of metals is more and more dependent on
prices of the energy.
The dominant point of view
( journalists, economists ) was, in 2000-2003, that raw materials had no future,
today they are far too much expensive and thus always without future.
The contrary investor will thus be delighted but, the message is as often
repeated as we can doubt, it own point of view. It is thus necessary to have
a very clear idea of the long term (bull in 5, 10, 15 years) not to weaken
in the moments of doubt of the medium-term corrections (little waves of decline
from 6 to 18 months).The main tendency is always for the increase, the waves
of decline are normal but dangerous, thus attention has do not buy
not anything and whenever.
For 2007 we do not change course and we consider far in front of, fundamentally
nothing changed.
Be careful! This is the opinion of a person who is interested in the raw materials
for a long time to be objective.
Dr Thomas Chaize
