For five years the price of oil (in orange on the chart) is in a price channel between $ 75 and $ 110 (WTI) with an annual average that approximates more $ 100 (blue column ).
Below $ 75 per barrel, a portion of the oil production is threatened (agro fuel, oil shale, tar sands, ultra-deep offshore ...). Below $ 75, the world's oil production drops sharply (marginal cost) and "mechanically" the price drop is temporary.
Above $ 110 a barrel oil is the global economy that is in danger.
When oil becomes "expensive" and becomes too much weight to "the economy" global systemic crisis risk increase (1980, 2008) must be careful.
In the long term, the price of oil is structurally bullish (peak production of conventional oil), the channel will gradually move upward and the average annual increase ($ 100 per barrel will be a very important threshold).
Attention, as in all bull markets, the increases are long, slow and brutal and quick fixes ...
"Every fall (in oil prices) is not a reason to fear but an opportunity to buy." These are the words of John Davison Rockefeller (1839-1937)...
Dr Thomas Chaize