Here is a technical analysis simplified at most to give a clear reading of the possible evolution of the price of the ounce of gold. It is necessary to watch on the graph the previous summit which is the third point of an old resistance. The question is to know or goes price of the ounce of gold and what speed?
I. Objective 600 dollars.
There is an important resistance in the zone $405-430. This old resistance
of 15 years opens the door of 600 dollars. But it is going to need a hard
battle to the gold-diggers to break this Ligne Maginot.
Most low is $255 and the resistance in the zone of $430, 430-255 = $175, 430+175 = $600. And so the following objective is 600 dollars.
But it is difficult to know the time when is going to set the break of this resistance.
Once this resistance there are two scenarios of evolution of possible price.
II. Linear progress.
If the progress of the prices of the ounce keeps the same growth rate of the price of the gold as previous years, are needed 5 - 6 years to reach the objective of 600 dollars. The growth of the gold in a linear shape which follows a right-hand side of tendency since the low point to 255 dollars.
III. Parabolic progress.
There is the second possible scenario, the increase takes a shape parabolic as in the 1980s. With this scenario 600 dollars will be reached much more quickly. Big maximum is enough of two years for reaching the objective of 600 dollars.
IIt is difficult to know at which
moment the resistance in the zone of 430 dollars be going to break. But
it seems very likely that then the second objective will be in the zone
of 600 dollars. If we had credit note also the necessary time to reach this
objectives there are two possible scenarios. The first one is that of the
continuance and the second of the acceleration.
To give my opinion in a more net way, I would say that the ounce is going to break its resistance and to reach 600 dollars, but that the factor time and very difficult to estimate. That is why I think that it is wise to place it on this long-term sector and to avoid the goings there and back short term. Why to take short-term risks while this market offers stratospheric perspectives long term.
Be careful, this is only a personal opinion.
Dr Thomas Chaize