In October 2004, in a topic "Price trends of oil for a century" I indicates that the output of the horizontal canal, older than 20 years, was an important point for the price of oil.
Seven years later, I can confirm that the output of the horizontal canal was indeed a decisive signal, or even a "strategic inflection point."
Before 2001, the price of oil remained quietly in a horizontal channel between 10 and $ 40 a barrel. When there was tension on the supply, as during the first Iraq war, oil rose to $ 40 before dropping quietly in the bottom of its channel to almost 10 dollars a barrel.
Today, the area of $ 40 has become a major support during the 2008 crisis and the price of oil is kept desperately below $ 100 to protect the global economic growth.
No need to be a medium to announce that the price of oil will pass his record $ 147 a barrel in July 2008 in less time than it will in the world to understand that the area's abundant oil is over.
Gradually, the entire global economy adapts and adjusts to this major change that has no parallel in history.
Car manufacturers swear by the decrease in fuel efficiency of cars, improved yields of combustion engines, new fuel, hybrid cars, electric cars, lower CO ² ...
Airlines renew their fleet for new models all have in common to consume less fuel.
The industry reorganization, outsourcing, streamlines the most energy production around the world. China represses its territory even discreetly, with taxes, some energy-intensive industries too.
Major oil companies invest in solar, geothermal, coal, biomass, wind. Do you think they would invest in the oil sands today, the gigantic projects of LNG, gas shale, oil shale, the deep offshore, even if they had the opportunity to invest in oil conventional onshore?
Concerned they all suddenly and simultaneously global warming, or do they adapt to peak oil?
All that the world has as sophisticated investors, which I describe as precursors, are present in the oil, energy and materials 1ST years. It started in 1998 for the former and is accelerated from 2004. In fact, some geologists to the peak of conventional oil production was reached in 2005. Attention, this is not the end of the world, but the end of the world. The world economy will simply have to adapt, and will do very well: the growth will come from these changes. But that will change the geopolitical balance and industrial worldwide, leaders of yesterday will not be those of tomorrow.
The first option, the most obvious, is to invest in the oil industry, upstream, exploration and oil production. It is possible to invest in juniors that provide the lever with high risk or large caps that offer dividends and limited risk, but potential for growth much lower.
The second option is to invest in the production of energy in all its forms: electricity, coal, green energy (wind, solar, geothermal, biomass ...).
The third option is to invest in technology solutions that improve engine performance, the energy storage, batteries, building insulation, improved materials, the opportunities are virtually endless, limited only by your imagination.
The fourth option is indirectly related areas to oil and growth of the world such as agriculture, industry, mining, timber, water ...
And if the energy and materials 1ST do not really care, check, anyway, when you do your research before investing, the company has done everything to protect its activities uneducable higher long-term oil.
It is difficult to predict what will the price of a barrel of oil at 7 days, but it is easy to know what to do in 7-year horizon.
Go to 7 years to discuss the price of oil over 200 dollars and his old stand to 147 dollars ...
Dr Thomas Chaize